Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a sign or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
