A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
